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GrantG Presidential Prediction Map
<![CDATA[<p><strong>><a href='http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/'>2008 Election Contest: Pick Your President</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the 2008 presidential election.</p>]]>Obama 52%
McCain 42%
Nader 3.5%
Barr 2.5%
Grant I am intereted to know your evidence as to how third party candidates will draw 6% of the popular vote. From today's lesson it is clear that a third party can be a spoiler, but to this degree would be very optimistic.
ReplyDeleteI would like to add that you have Nader drawing votes from McCain...
ReplyDeleteIt would be especially surprising if Nader were to garner 3.5% of the vote, considering that he is no longer affiliated with the more visible Green Party.
ReplyDeleteI really don't think Third-Party Candidates will have much if any impact on this election. There was a chance Bob Barr or some one else entering the race could have picked up significant votes if McCain pegged Lieberman or Ridge to be his running mate, but his pick of Palin seemed to have secured the Right. I think in a normal election, people would be more apt to voting for Third Party Candidates as they might perceive both main options unacceptable as just candidates part of the system (like Perot's run in '92). Yet, in this election, with both candidates running on a platform of "Change," I doubt there will be many disgruntled citizens running away from both of them. An interesting Yahoo News Article discussed the possible impact of third-party candidates: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081102/ap_on_el_pr/third_party_candidates;_ylt=AvuOSHv2j3iiLU9hJ3toQSFh24cA
ReplyDelete(If Cynthia McKinney receives over 1% of the vote I will skip college move to Canada).
If Nader,was to earn 3.5% of the popular vote, Obama would be less likely to win tight swing states such as FL and MO.
ReplyDeleteGrant, what is your obsession with 3rd party candidates? I simply don't understand your logic on this one.
ReplyDelete